2nd Wild Card Teams 1995-2011

The list below shows who the 2nd AL and NL Wild Cards teams would have been if 2 Wild Cards teams made the playoffs from 1995-2011, with notes of interest following.

 

Year                AL                   NL

1995                LAA                Hou

1996                Sea                 Wash (Mon)

1997                LAA                LAD

1998                Tor                   SF

1999                Oak                 Cin

2000                Cle                   LAD

2001                Min                  SF

2002                Sea                  LAD

2003                Sea                  Hou

2004                Oak                 SF

2005                Cle                   Phil

2006                ChiW               Phil

2007                Det                  SD

2008                NYY               NYM

2009                Tex                  SF

2010                Bos                  SD

2011                Bos                  Atl

 

San Francisco would have made the playoffs 4 more times.  The Dodgers and Mariners would have made it 3 more times.  A full breakdown for the additional amount of times each team would have made the playoffs is below.

Toronto and Washington would have made the playoffs at least once. Toronto in 1998 and Washington in 1996 when the franchise was the Montreal Expos.

 

AL

3 times: Sea

2 times: Bos, Cle, LAA, Oak

1 time: ChiW, Det, Min,  NYY, Tex, Tor

0 times: Balt, KC, TB

 

NL

4 times: SF

3 times: LAD

2 times: Hou, Phil, SD

1 time:  Atl, Cin, NYM, Wash (as Mon)

0 times: Ari, ChiC, Col, Fla, Milw, Pitt, StL

 

Cy Young Award

This blog also counts as my vote for the Walter Johnson award for the best pitcher in the AL and NL for the Baseball Bloggers Alliance.  For more information about the group go to http://baseballbloggersalliance.wordpress.com/

 

AL

1. Verlander: 24-5, 250 K, 0.92 WHIP, 2.40 ERA. 1st in Wins, ERA, K’s, and WHIP. Led the Tigers to the playoffs. Nuff said.

2. Weaver: 18-8, 198 K, 1.01 WHIP, 2.41 ERA. 3rd in Wins, 2nd in ERA, 8th in K’s, 2nd in WHIP. ERA and WHIP a lot lower than CC’s gives him the 2nd spot.

3. Sabathia: 19-8, 230 K, 1.23 WHIP, 3.00 ERA. 2nd in Wins, 2nd in K’s counts for a lot to give him 3rd.

4. Wilson: 16-7, 206 K, 1.19 WHIP, 2.94 ERA. Better overall numbers than Shields.

5. Shields: 16-12, 225 K, 1.04 WHIP, 2.82 ERA. The losses hurt a little, dropping him to 5th.

 

NL

1. Kershaw: 21-5, 248 K, 0.98 WHIP, 2.28 ERA. T-1st in wins, 1st in K, 1st in WHIP and ERA. Hands down #1.

2. Halladay: 19-6, 220 K, 1.04 WHIP, 2.35 ERA. 3rd in wins, T-3rd in K, 2nd in ERA.

3. Lee: 17-8, 238 K, 1.03 WHIP, 2.40. T-4th in wins, 2nd in K, 3rd in ERA.

4. Kennedy: 21-4, 198 K, 1.09 WHIP, 2.88 ERA. T-1st in wins, 8th in K, 7th in ERA.

5. Kimbrel: 46 saves, 127 K’s, 1.04 WHIP, 2.10 ERA as a rookie. Pitched the Braves deep into the season until his arm fell off and the team fell apart.

Rookie of the Year Award

American League

1. Jeremy Hellickson. 2. Ivan Nova. 3. Eric Hosmer

A lot of people knew in 2010 that Hellickson would be terrific in 2011. He didn’t disappoint. 13-10 record. 2.95 ERA. 29 starts. 146 hits in 189 innings. .209 Batting Average Against. Pretty stellar all around.

Nova went 16-4 and it could be said that he saved the Yankees season by stepping up and becoming their #2 starter.  But his ERA was 3.70.  His BAA was .254 but he only struck out 98 batters in 165 innings and he gave up 163 hits. Maybe his W-L is inflated because of his offense, but he was a rookie pitcher in New York, which is not easy to do.

Hosmer batted .293, hit 19 HR, and had 78 RBI. He put up good rookie numbers, but not as good as the pitchers. A lot of people will say he should be #2 on this list, but with an OBP of only .334 I don’t think its enough to be ahead of a pitcher that starts 27 games and goes 16-4.

Worthy of consideration was Mark Trumbo, who had 29 HR. But his OBP was under .300 (.291) as he struck out 125 times and only walked 25.

 

National League

1. Craig Kimbrel.  2. Freddie Freeman.  3. Brandon Beachy

All Braves. The team that blew their huge wild card lead and missed the playoffs had 3 great rookies.

First place is easy. Kimbrel had 46 saves, the rookie record. The Braves may have their closer position locked down for a while.

Freeman batted .282 with a .346 OBP. He had 571 AB, 161 hits, 21 HR, and 76 RBI. Best NL rookie position player by far.

The third spot could be controversial. It could have been Vance Worley or Wilson Ramos. I chose Beachy because I favor pitching over position players for rookies, and Beachy had 50 more K’s than Worley, in only 10 more innings pitched.

Ramos probably would have been next, followed by Worley. Not mentioned is popular choice of others, Danny Espinoza, but he hit .236, which immediately strikes him from my consideration.

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Winning 100 Games in a Season – Revisited

Earlier this season, I wrote about 100 game winning seasons and how they correlated to winning the World Series.  The posting was related to my favorite team, the Red Sox, as they were on pace to win over 100 games before the fell apart late in the season. Hopefully my previous blog will not be blamed for their collapse.

With the Phillies losing to the Cardinals in the NLDS, it seemed relevant to re-post something about this topic, as the Phillies won 102 regular season games and did not win the World Series.

The data below is updated to include this year’s Phillies team.

Does winning 100 games or more in a season result in a World Series Championship?

There have been 97 instances in Major League Baseball history that a team has won 100 games in an individual season.  92 of those 97 were in a year in which there was a World Series.  A team won 100 or more games in 1892, 1898, 1899, 1902, and 1904, but there was no World Series in those seasons.

  • 34 times the team won the World Series = 36.96%
  • 29 times the team lost the World Series = 31.52%
  • 63 times (34+29) the team made it to the World Series = 68.48%
  • 12 times the team lost in League Championship Series = 13.04%
  • 10 times the team lost in League Division Series = 10.87%
  • 7 times the team finished 2nd in their league or division and didn’t make the postseason = 7.61%

Therefore, 58 times (29+12+10+7) the team that won 100 or more games in a season has not won the World Series. This is 63.04% of the time, which is almost two-thirds of the occurrences.

Manager of the Year Award

Here are my thoughts on who should win Manager of the Year.

American League

1. Joe Madden

2. Jim Leyland

3. Manny Acta

Remember how good Cleveland was into the middle of the season. They were only 1.5 games out on August 20th.  But went 18-24 the rest of the year. Acta deserves the credit. If the Tribe had won 7-9 more games, he would get more consideration for first place for this award.

The Tigers won 95 games and lost 67. In games that Justin Verlander didn’t pitch the Tigers went 71-63, only 8 games above .500. So why should Leyland be considered for the award? Because they won 95 games with a team of Verlander, Cabrera, Martinez, and who else? They cruised to the central division title winning it by 15 games.

But this award should go to Joe Maddon. But he should be thanking Terry Francona. Maddon’s team has made the postseason 3 times in the past 4 years, with a miniscule payroll compared to other teams. As a Red Sox fan, I can’t repeat the amount of games the Rays came back from to overtake us in the standings. But Maddon’s team did it because he kept the motivated late in the season when other teams could have just shut it down.

 

National League

1. Kirk Gibson

2. Tony LaRussa

3. Ron Roenicke

Roenicke finally got the Brewers to the playoffs in just his first year as manager. They won 96 games and he had to deal with Nyjer Morgan for the whole year and K-Rod for part of the year.

Similar to Maddon, LaRussa came back from a lead that seemed to be over. He kept his team motivated deep into the season. He didn’t let Pujols contract get in the way of the teams goals at all.

But the NL award goes to Kirk Gibson. How many people had Arizona winning the division? I think I predicted them to finish 4th. Gibson took a young team with a lot of new faces and brought them together. He didn’t let the allure and pressure of the playoffs get to his players down the stretch.

 

Blue Jays 1990

Baseball Franchise Rankings tells the untold stories of how teams were in contention, but came up short of achieving a goal. The book features samples of summaries that explain what happened to teams in individual seasons in which they had a chance to win something, but did not. If the team had performed better, they would be a more successful franchise in comparison to others.

After winning their 2nd division title in 1989 the Blue Jays were closing in on back to back division titles in 1990. Toronto led the American League East Division by 1.5 games over Boston on September 24th with eight games left in the season. But the Blue Jays fell out of first place by losing four games in a row, which included two games in a three game series against the Red Sox.  Toronto went 2-6 after the 24th while Boston went 6-3 and the Blue Jays finished the season in second place two games behind Boston.

End of Regular Season Standings Predictions

Sept 3

Because the regular season standings play a factor in each franchise’s score and rank, I will be predicting the standings on a monthly basis throughout the season.  Here are my predictions for how the standings will look at the end of the regular season.

 

AL East: Boston, New York, Tampa Bay, Toronto, Baltimore

AL Central: Detroit, Chicago, Cleveland Minnesota, Kansas City

AL West: Texas, Los Angeles, Oakland, Seattle

 

NL East: Philadelphia, Atlanta, New York, Washington, Florida

NL Central: Milwaukee, St. Louis, Cincinnati, Chicago, Pittsburgh, Houston

NL West: Arizona, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Colorado, San Diego

 

September 1st Standings Predictions Results

Sept 3

Let’s see how my predictions for September 1st turned out.  Standings as of September 1st (Followed by how many I got right, Bolded). Previous months results below.

 

AL East: Boston, New York, Tampa Bay, Toronto, Baltimore (5 of 5)

AL Central: Detroit, Chicago (tied), Cleveland (tied), Minnesota, Kansas City (3 of 5)

AL West: Texas, Los Angeles, Oakland, Seattle (2 of 4)

AL: 10 of 14 = 71%

 

NL East: Philadelphia, Atlanta, New York, Washington, Florida (3 of 5)

NL Central: Milwaukee, St. Louis, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Houston (6 of 6)

NL West: Arizona, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Colorado, San Diego (3 of 5)

NL: 12 of 16 = 75%

Total: 22 of 30 = 73%

 

August 1st Percentage Correct: 19 of 30 = 63%

July 1st Percentage Correct: 17 of 30 = 57%

June 1st Percentage Correct: 12 of 30 =40%

May 1st Percentage Correct: 18 of 30 = 60%

 

Blue Jays 1987

Baseball Franchise Rankings tells the untold stories of how teams were in contention, but came up short of achieving a goal. The book features samples of summaries that explain what happened to teams in individual seasons in which they had a chance to win something, but did not. If the team had performed better, they would be a more successful franchise in comparison to others.

After winning their 1st division title in 1985, the Blue Jays were on the brink of winning their 2nd in 1987, as they had a 3.5 game lead over Detroit on September 26th with 7 games left to play in the season. But Toronto lost 3 games to Milwaukee and 4 games against the Tigers. Their losses to Detroit were all by 1 run, 2 were in extra innings, and in one of them the Blue Jays blew a lead in the 9th inning.  Toronto lost their last 7 games of the year, while Detroit went 6-2 over the same period.  The Blue Jays finished 2 games out, missing out on winning their 2nd division title and a chance at playing the Twins in the ALCS and contending for their first World Series Championship.

 

Blue Jays 1985

Baseball Franchise Rankings tells the untold stories of how teams were in contention, but came up short of achieving a goal. The book features samples of summaries that explain what happened to teams in individual seasons in which they had a chance to win something, but did not. If the team had performed better, they would be a more successful franchise in comparison to others.

In 1985 the Blue Jays won their first division title and played Kansas City in the ALCS.  Toronto won 3 of the first 4 games of the series to take a commanding series lead.  In Game 5 the Blue Jays gave up two runs early in the game and had the bases loaded in the top of the 6th with two outs, but their next batter up grounded out.  Their last nine batters were retired in order and they lost the game 2-0.  Toronto also left two runners on in the 5th inning of that game.  In Game 6 the Blue Jays trailed by 2 runs late in the game and left 2 runners on in both the 7th and 9th innings and lost the game 5-3. Toronto lost Game 7 6-2 and lost the series they led 3-1.  They were only 1 win away from making the World Series.

To this date, the Blue Jays have made it to and won 2 World Series, occurring in 1992 and 1993.